EpidemiologyMatters Trial Grounds
Farrlandia · Experiments on the CensusRuns in your browser

The Trial Grounds

Farrlandia's census is simulated from equations that are on public record, so it supports something no real dataset can: experiments whose answers can be checked. This page fetches the published census and contact network and runs two of them in your browser. Nothing is uploaded anywhere.

Experiment 1 · Randomization

Randomize Smoking Cessation

Nobody can randomize people to smoke. In Farrlandia you can do the next best thing: enrol every smoker in a cessation trial, assign half to quit at random, and follow both arms forward under the town's own risk equations.

–smokers enrolled
–raw census RR
–exact answer

Experiment 2 · Interference

Vaccinate Part of the Town

An infection spreads along Farrlandia's published contact network: households, colliery crews and factory shifts, neighbourhood acquaintances. Vaccinate part of the town and a trial inside the epidemic measures the direct protection of the vaccinated. The town gains more than that, because every protected contact also breaks a chain of transmission. Each click runs two full epidemics: one town without the vaccine, one with it.

40%

–cases, no vaccine
–trial RR (direct)
–cases trial predicts
–cases simulated
–herd protection

Both experiments run on the published files alone: the census (10,000 residents, 32 variables) and its contact network (90,890 ties). The risk equations are the ones the census generator uses, reproduced in this page's script, so a result here can be checked against the data by hand or in R, Stata, or Python.

Vaccine settings in Experiment 2: a leaky vaccine that cuts each exposure's transmission probability by 70 percent; ten seed cases in District Snow; infectious for seven days.